Methodology
What these estimates mean
Clinical mode uses the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations for 10-year first hard ASCVD. Experimental mode adds the race-free AHA PREVENT base equations for 10- and 30-year total CVD, ASCVD, heart failure, coronary heart disease, and stroke, plus MESA 10-year coronary heart disease estimates with and without coronary artery calcium. Each number is computed independently from its published equation.
What it does not mean
- It does not predict whether a specific person will have a heart attack.
- It does not diagnose cardiovascular disease or recommend medication.
- It does not create 1-, 3-, or 5-year values by extrapolating a 10-year model.
- It does not impute missing measurements or save entered values.
- It does not average estimates with different outcomes or call them a validated combined score.
Population scope and fairness
PREVENT does not use race and remains available for every listed identity when the other inputs and age are eligible. PCE 2013 directly modeled non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White branches; MESA directly modeled White, Chinese, Black, and Hispanic study groups. Race and ethnicity are social labels, not biological measurements, and calibration does not automatically transfer across populations. ModernDoc never maps an unmodeled identity to White, Chinese, Black, Hispanic, or any other branch. When a source model has no valid quantitative branch, the calculator explains the evidence gap and shows no number for that model. That means the model is not applicable—not that risk is zero. We will add new population-specific models when peer-reviewed research publishes validated equations that can be responsibly implemented and tested.